What’s the point to Real Estate Financial Modeling?
The first thing to do is define the term We describe “real estate” as land and structures which generate revenue or are able to generate revenue.
We concentrate specifically on commercial property (CRE) which is acquired and then let to businesses or individuals in contrast to residential real estate like single-family houses, that are owned by the homeowner and not rented to other people.
In CRE, people or companies, i.e., tenants are required to pay the rent of property owners in order to make use of their space.
The owners make a profit from the rent they collect and utilize a part of it to cover costs like property taxes, utilities and insurance. In certain instances tenants are also responsible for a portion of these costs too.
This helps us develop the following definition for Real Financial Modeling of Real Estate (aka REFM):
In the realm of real financial modeling of real estate (REFM) it is the process of analyzing the property from the viewpoint as the Equity Investor (owner) or Debt Investor (lender) within the property, and decide whether or it is you as an Equity or Debt Investor should invest in the property, based on the risk and the potential return.
For instance for example, if you buy an “multifamily” home (i.e. an apartment structure) in the amount of $50,000 and keep for five years, would you be able to earn an annualized return of 12% from your investments?
If you build an office building from scratch by investing $100 million in the land and construction and you then find tenants, lease the propertyand then decide to sell it, can you get a 20% annual return?
If you can identify the most significant assumptions and then set up your analysis in a proper way Financial modeling for real estate assists you in answering these kinds of questions.
Every investment is a gamble and therefore a basic model cannot determine if it will earn an 11.2 percent or 13.5 percent annualized returns.
However, a thorough analysis will help you determine if the return range – 10 percent to 15% is reasonable.
These are the issues that private equity firms that specialize in real estate are constantly thinking about and they also spend considerable time analyzing the data before taking investment decision.
Real estate is a mix of fixed income and equities and has an investment risk/return one that is in between.
For instance for example, an example of this is a Core real estate transaction in which an entity buys a stabilized property, makes changes minimally, and then sells it, may provide risk and possible yields that are similar to an corporate bond that is investment grade.
In contrast is an “Value-Added” arrangement where an entity purchases the property that has an occupancy rate that is low and then makes major renovations to enhance it and then aims to sell the property at a greater price may offer more some risk and yields that are similar than stocks.
Also, and “Opportunistic” deal in which an organization develops a brand new property from scratch (“development”) as well as completely transforms or rebuilds an existing property (“redevelopment”) could provide a higher risk than stocks, however, it also has more potential for returns.
These descriptions outline the three principal strategies as well as the three major kinds of financial modeling:
Modeling the Real Estate Acquisition Process Aquire a Property Then, make minor changes and then sell it.
Real Modeling for Renovation of Real Estate: Buy an existing property, modify It in a significant way, and then sell It.
Real Modeling of Real Estate Development: Purchase Land, Build a New Property, Search for Tenants, and sell it after stabilization.
There’s a fourth approach to consider: build an entirely new property, but you must pre-sell units prior to completion instead of leasing it out, and then selling the whole property at the close of the project.
This type of model is simply one of the subsets of modeling real estate development which is usually applicable on condominiums (residential property) which is why it’s not the main focus of our study.
The lease terms provide the main differences.
Retail, office and industrial properties typically utilize more precise financial modeling, as lease terms differ greatly and there are less guests or tenants hotels or multifamily properties.
In contrast, hotels employ the same assumptions and drivers are typical for ordinary businesses, while multifamily properties (apartment structures) are in the middle.
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The Step-by-Step Method to Real Estate Financial Modelling
The specific steps differ based on the kind of the financial plan, however they’ll be similar to this:
Step 1: Create the Transaction Assumptions. This includes the ones for the size of your property as well as the price of purchase or development costs, as well as the closing (i.e. how much you may offer the property for at the closing).
Step 2: To create an development model, you will plan the construction Period generally with a basis of monthly and then draw from equity and debt in time – but not in full upfront for the construction.
Step 3: Develop the Operating Assumptions for your property. These can be extremely general (e.g. the Average Rent Per Unit * Units) or very specific (revenue expenditures, revenue and concessions for specific tenants) according to the type of property.
Step 4: Create the Pro-Forma. Include revenues and expenses, down towards the Net Operating Profit (NOI) line and capital expenses below that for the calculation of Adjusted NOI, as well as debt service (interest as well as principal payments) below that line to calculate cash flows to equity.
Step 5: Create the Returns Calculations, which includes the initial investment as well as any subsequent investments in the future as well as the Cash Flows to Equity every year, and the profits from the sale, including the repayment of debt and transaction charges. The focus is upon the internal rate of return (IRR) and Cash-on Cash or Money-on-Money multipliers here.
Step 6: Take an investment decision based on your preferences and the output of the model in various situations.
Real Financial Analysis of Real Estate To Buy or not to buy?
Real Financial Modeling for Real Estate is less complicated than traditional models of financial analysis… In the majority of cases.
The reason is that the goal is much more narrow The reason is that we don’t need 3 statement models or valuation models, credit models, DCF models, merger models or LBO models.
Additionally, the revenue and expense projections don’t differ significantly from what they are for different companies.
The majority of financial models for real estate can be summarized with an enlightened version of Shakespeare’s most well-known quote:
“To purchase or not to purchase?”
Should you purchase or develop a home at the conditions stated?
Are you able to get the kind of returns you’re looking for or will that be a completely unreasonable assumption?
In the worst case scenario could you be losing money, or remain afloat, even if returns are not as expected?
Real estate financial modeling offers you easy but efficient methods to answer these questions and making investment decision.